Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right in line with 2-month highs. Bonds (which dictate rates) began the day with promise. There was heavy buying (good for rates) in the 7am hour. This coincided with stocks challenging their lowest levels in weeks. But both stocks and bonds bounced back in the 9am hour. Bonds ultimately erased all of the morning's gains and, thus, the hope for today's mortgage rates to be lower than yesterday's.
Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, even as rates ticked slightly higher. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and dipped 1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index fell 3% from the previous week but remains 147% higher than the same week one year ago. Despite the pullback, refi activity is still running at levels far stronger than anything seen in 2023 or 2024. Larger-balance borrowers continue to drive the category, though rising rates led to the smallest average refinance loan size in more than a month. Viewed in context, refi demand is still well into post-2020 recovery territory, even if weekly swings look choppy. “Purchase applications picked up almost 6 percent over the week to the strongest pace since September, despite mortgage rates increasing slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans increased, as potential homebuyers continue to shop around, particularly in markets where inventory has increased and sales price growth has slowed. Based on the unadjusted purchase index for the week, this was the strongest start to November since 2022.” He added that higher rates cooled refi demand, particularly among conventional and VA borrowers. Purchase activity rose 6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3% unadjusted, climbing 31% above the same week a year ago. After the slower stretch in late summer and early fall, purchase volume is finally showing signs of seasonal resilience.
I always wonder, when I see two gas stations near each other in a small town, if the owners agree on pricing and share information. But when you’re dealing with trillions of dollars of mortgages and millions of borrowers, well, that’s a different scale, and the leader and boards of directors should be held responsible if the news is correct. Per the AP, “A confidant of Bill Pulte, the Trump administration’s top housing regulator, provided confidential mortgage pricing data from Fannie Mae to (Freddie Mac), alarming senior officials of the government-backed lending giant who warned it could expose the company to claims that it was colluding with a rival to fix mortgage rates. CEOs report to boards, and some are saying that if Mr. Pulte and the Fannie and Freddie boards want to be relieved of their duties, they should have just resigned. And if nothing of consequence happens, what does that say about the housing finance system in the U.S.? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by TransUnion. Mortgage lenders choose TransUnion for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions, enabling them to achieve more desirable lending outcomes in a volatile housing market. Hear an interview with Telhio Credit Union’s Allie Hager on independent mortgage banks and credit unions differ in serving today’s borrowers, focusing on borrower sentiment around rates versus payments, strategies for building customer loyalty, and personal insights on professional growth and finding one’s comfort zone.)
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had done more than half of their overnight selling by 7am, and stocks are one of the only scapegoats. In other words, a "flight to safety" (sell stocks/buy bonds) seems to be the only popular explanation, and it's entirely unsatisfying when looking at stocks and bonds on a chart. Our official take is: there's a secret club and we're not in it. There are some straws we could grasp at, but feel less compelled to do so when the magical mystery move is an instant 5bp rally.
For straw graspers, we can overlay UK bonds (which had some drama this morning) on the same chart and suggest that UK selling was preventing Treasuries from following the stock losses. And once UK bonds reversed course, TSYs were free to rally.
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bonds sold off moderately in response. The bond market weakness is in line with our expectations for a confirmed reopening based on the simple logic that a prolonged shutdown would have been increasingly detrimental to economic growth. Comments from a few Fed speakers added fuel to the fire by calling a December rate cut into question. That said, assuming the big-ticket econ data is back up and running by then, the outcome of those reports will likely add clarity to rate cut expectations (or lack thereof). In case anyone needs the reminder, econ data WILL NOT simply resume on its previous calendar. Releases that were on the schedule will be delayed until further notice and we continue waiting for an updated release schedule from data agencies.
Econ Data / Events
ADP Weekly Payrolls (Tue, 11/11)
-11k
Market Movement Recap
10:14 AM Weaker overnight and a bit more selling in the past few minutes. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 3 ticks (.09) since rate sheets. 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.113
12:24 PM Best levels of the day in Treasuries with 10yr up only 3bps at 4.096. MBS down an eighth of a point.
01:11 PM A bit weaker after 30yr auction. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.111
03:23 PM New Lows. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.114
Watching Rates
Check our some recent articles and posts about current rates.
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher on Friday, but because of the narrow prevailing range and previous increases this week, that brings us right in line with 2-month highs. Bonds (which dictate rates) began the day with promise. There was heavy buying (good for rates) in the 7am hour. This coincided with stocks challenging their lowest levels in weeks. But both stocks and bonds bounced back in the 9am hour. Bonds ultimately erased all of the morning's gains and, thus, the hope for today's mortgage rates to be lower than yesterday's.
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range is so narrow, in fact, that yesterday's average rate was at the bottom of that range while today's rate is closer to the highs. Given the minimal overall movement, there's no compelling need to account for underlying market motivations. To be sure, there was no new economic data that caused weakness in the underlying bond market. That leaves only the reopening of the government as a scapegoat. Several days ago, when the end of the shutdown came into focus, we cautioned that it was more likely to put slight upward pressure on rates whenever it was confirmed. This is consistent with the movement seen today. More meaningful momentum will depend on the economic data that is once again in the cards now that government agencies are open. The only caveat is that we're still waiting on updated release schedules for those reports.
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October's monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday's weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count. Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved down to the lowest levels since October 31st, but just barely. The typical correlation between bonds and mortgages suggested a slightly bigger move.
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage rates came out for the day. If the improvement had been sharper, mortgage lenders likely would have made a mid-day adjustment to slightly lower levels. The implication was that rates would have been slightly lower this morning if bonds managed to hold the same levels over the weekend. Unfortunately, bonds lost enough ground to overshadow Friday's cushion, just slightly. The net effect is an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate that is 0.02% higher versus Friday morning--a minimal change considering the day-over-day losses in the bond market. With that, the average lender remains well inside the the 0.10 range that's been in place since October 29th. Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. When markets reopen on Wednesday, the prospects for ending the government shutdown may be coming into clearer view and that could cause enough market volatility to spill over into rates. If today's trading was any clue, a "reopening" event is more likely to put upward pressure on rates, but today's rate increase could already be reflecting those expectations.
